Jill Barshay’s reflections
on what the declining birthrate means for colleges and the students who hope to
get a college degree a decade from now may be a wakeup call for us in higher
education. She cites research provided by Nathan Grawe, an economist at
Carleton College in Minnesota, who predicts that the college-going population
will drop by 15 percent between 2025 and 2029 and continue to decline by
another percentage point or two thereafter. Grawe’s forecasts for the number of
students at two-year community colleges and four-year institutions are
published in his book, Demographics and
the Demand for Higher Education, with updates on his website. He breaks the
numbers down not only by type of school, and how selective it is, but also by
geographic region and race/ethnicity. “Students are going to be a hot
commodity, a scarce resource,” said Grawe. “It’s going to be harder during this
period for institutions to aggressively increase tuition. It may be a time
period when it’s a little easier on parents and students who are negotiating
over the financial aid package.”
